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NORC at the University Chicago

City of Chicago Census & Data Collaboration

Chicago, IL, August 17, 2017: The L Train, or elevated train, runs through downtown Chicago during rush hour. Chicago's CTA offers trains and buses for commuters who work and live all over the city.
NORC helps the City of Chicago advance equity efforts by ensuring accurate Census counts
  • Client
    The City of Chicago’s Chief Equity Officer
  • Dates
    March 2023 - December 2023

Problem

The City of Chicago wanted to ensure its population counts and estimates were accurate.

The U.S. Census Bureau runs several programs allowing states, counties, and cities to submit data showing their populations may have been enumerated incorrectly or missed:

  • The Post-Census Group Quarters Review (or PCGQR; annual) corrects for inaccuracies in the decennial census.
  • The Population Estimates Challenge Program (2023 only) corrects for inaccuracies in the Vintage 2022 Chicago population estimate.

Seeking a local organization with expertise with administrative records and a stake in the community in which it operates, the city engaged NORC to submit recounts to these challenge programs.

Solution

NORC’s methodological expertise helps the City of Chicago ensure an accurate population count.

In preparation for the City’s response to the PCGQR, NORC acquired, cleaned, harmonized, and geocoded information about facilities in Chicago that met the Census Bureau’s definitions of group quarters (such as nursing homes, dorms, and residential treatment centers). Methodological experts identified gaps between this information and the 2020 decennial census records, while a vetting team verified all facilities that had potentially been undercounted.

For the Population Estimates Challenge Program, NORC methodologists evaluated the Census Bureau methodology for estimating the 2022 Chicago population. Using multiple data sources, NORC developed alternative methods to estimate the City’s population and recommended the best method to the city.

Result

NORC identified nearly 12,000 people missing from City population estimates, providing more accurate data to advance the City’s equity efforts.

NORC identified over 5,000 people that had been missed during the 2020 decennial census of group quarters and almost 7,000 that were missed in the 2021 and 2022 population estimates. The Census Bureau accepted both challenges and incorporated them into future City of Chicago population estimates through the end of the decade. These estimates will determine the annual distribution of over $675 billion in state and federal programs.

NORC’s demographic, statistical, and data science experts are providing ongoing technical consultation to the city as it prepares to challenge its Vintage 2023 population estimate.

Project Leads

“As a longstanding Chicago-based organization, NORC is pleased to provide cutting-edge methodological expertise in support of the City’s efforts to ensure an accurate population count.”

Martha Stapleton

Principal Research Director

“As a longstanding Chicago-based organization, NORC is pleased to provide cutting-edge methodological expertise in support of the City’s efforts to ensure an accurate population count.”

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